The way intellectuals are regarded has long been the regnant dynasty’s most reliable political barometer; it reflects the basic tenor of the nation’s life. The Ministry of Education has repeatedly declared that it is necessary to intensify Ideological Education among educators [so that they in turn inculcated the correct political ideas and attitudes among their students]. Online speculation holds that returnee teachers who have studied overseas are seen as a particular threat. Meanwhile, a small clutch of Remnant Leftists [‘New Leftists’ and anti-humanists who support various aspects of a revived Maoist ideology, some of the most famous of which are celebrated in the left-leaning international academy] in the tertiary sector are jumping for joy; it’s as though they have been given a new lease on life [如打雞血般, literally, ‘it’s as though they’ve been injected with chicken blood’ — a satirical reference to late-Cultural Revolution-era quackery. See Joel Martinsen, Injecting Chicken Blood]. They are bounding around in a blood-thirsty frenzy. All of these phenomena contribute to an atmosphere of fear, a trepidation among intellectuals that enforced Ideological Reform [that is the demand for intellectual conformity] is making a comeback. The leftward turn in educational policy and a mooted Thought Reform movement may indicate that even more extreme developments are on the cards.JFb免费翻墙网
‘Inappropriate discussions about National Policy can get you expelled from the Party!’
[The old expression] ’Inappropriate Discussions’ is once more a term bandied about with a deadening effect; the result is that people are being scared into silence [the ban on ‘Inappropriate Discussions of the Major Policies of the Centre (of the party-state)’ 妄議中央大政方針 came into force from late 2015 when the Communist Party Central and its Disciplinary Commission issued warnings against, and stipulated the punishment of, idle speculation about Party policy, leaders and factional infighting]. In an atmosphere such as this, how can there be any freedom of speech? Without Intellectual Freedom and the Independent Spirit [自由思想與獨立精神, an expression taken from Chen Yinque’s 陳寅恪 epitaph for Wang Guowei 王國維 and a long-cherished formulation embraced by China’s liberal intellectuals from the 1980s, one that has it roots in the Republican era when it was celebrated in particular by academics at Tsinghua University] what hope is there for people to explore the unknown, for the advancement of scholarship or for intellectual creativity? Up until recently, given the positive legacy of the last four decades — one that should be further enhanced by the concerted efforts of the next few generations — there was good reason to believe that [in the future] Chinese Civilisation could well enjoy an extraordinary peak of achievement in terms both of its intellectual and of its scholastic life. However, if the present policies that clamp down on free speech continue, or are extended further, these hopes will remain unrealised. China will be little more than a cultural backwater of intellectual dwarfs.JFb免费翻墙网
Fear Seven: A New Arms Race and the JFb免费翻墙网 Danger of War, Including Another Cold War
Over the last decade, Asia as a whole has for all intents and purposes entered an arms race. Fortunately, the probability of war has so far been maintained within acceptable parameters. The main issue for China is that we cannot afford to interrupt our developmental trajectory or further frustrate the Great Modern Transformation [that has been unfolding for nearly two centuries] just as it is within sight of being realised. Over the past two years, I have written two essays — ‘Don’t Let Civil War Break Out in China’ and ‘Protect the Reform Policies and the Open Door’ [both collected in Xu Zhangrun’s book The Rational State and Superior Politics: a Chinese Understanding of China’s Problems國家理性與優良政體：關於中國問題的中國意識, Hong Kong City University Press, 2017] — in which I argued that China has added a System of Military Preparedness to its previously existing Stability Maintenance Regime [mentioned above]. I did so in an effort to point out the inherent dangers in this development and to forewarn of its negative consequences.JFb免费翻墙网
At the moment, as the political atmosphere of China is becoming increasingly repressive and the country is entangled in a foreign trade dispute, there is an increased possibility of an economic downturn, something that could led to things that are beyond control and that may have various unintended consequences. In such a situation it is not unreasonable to be afraid that matters could result in some form of military conflict, be it either a hot or a cold war. One should mindful of the need to prevent such an outcome. Popular wisdom argues that a trade conflict between China and the United States should not be used as a pretext [by the propagandists and policy advisers] for heightened ideological contestation, nor should there be a competition over which side has a superior political system. I think my earlier concerns have recently been justified by the evidence of just such developments.JFb免费翻墙网
Fear Eight: The End of Reform and a JFb免费翻墙网 Return to Totalitarianism
Even though the word ‘Reform’ is somewhat tarnished and, despite the fact that even rather reprehensible polities use it as camouflage, nonetheless, given the discursive environment of contemporary China and the fact that we are at a time in the country’s life when the Great Transformation requires a final push, and compared to the outbreak of some explosive revolution or a regression to a form of extreme leftism, Reform is and remains the most prudent and promising way forward. The engine of reform, however, has been idling for the last few years; [now] if it isn’t used to propel us forward we will go into reverse. In fact, this state of affairs has become the hallmark of the last term [that is, Xi Jinping’s first term in office from 2012 to 2017]. Given the overall direction being taken people may be entirely justified in asking whether the Reform Policies and the Open Door have reached the end of their history, and will totalising politics now return in their stead? Who knows? At the moment, this questions is of the greatest concern to the largest number of Chinese.JFb免费翻墙网
During the Hu Jintao-Wen Jiabao decade [from 2003 to late 2012] it seemed as though the Totalitarian was transitioning towards the Authoritarian; that’s why some dubbed the resulting arrangement a ‘Post-Totalitarian-360-Degree-Authoritarian Political System’. Over the last two years, however, we have seen things moving in the opposite direction, ergo the widespread anxiety that we may all be witnessing a ‘Thorough-Going Return to Totalitarian Politics’.JFb免费翻墙网
Modern Chinese history teaches us that first, because of the Sino-Japanese War of 1894, and then, with the Anti-Japanese War of Resistance starting in 1937 [and continuing until 1945], China’s advance towards modernity was interrupted. Those wars put paid to any hope that the country could enjoy a normal political life. Modernity was derailed. Now we are approaching the final stages of a profound Transformation that has unfolded over nearly two centuries [starting with the political and military disruptions of the Daoguang era of the Manchu-Qing dynasty and the First Opium War of 1840]. We need a final push to achieve the goal [a point that the anxious author has already made a number of times]. Under no circumstances can the nation be derailed again by yet more military conflict. If that were to happen, when might history present us with another opportunity? Heaven only knows!JFb免费翻墙网
In outlining the above anxieties and the broadly felt sense of panic I have focussed on the domestic political realm — I have not expanded my considerations to discuss matters related to the economy or trade (including the question of massive tax cuts), nor have I touched on the provocative themes of democracy and rule of law. Below I will confine myself to offering a series of concrete policy suggestions [that is, Hopes] that I believe are of timely importance.JFb免费翻墙网
The First Hope: Put a Stop to Empty Grand Gestures and JFb免费翻墙网 Wasteful International Largesse
Average Chinese are most frequently offended by the way the state scatters large sums of money through international aid to little or no benefit. China is still slowly making its way up the steep slope of development. In terms both of basic infrastructure and social facilities, as well as in regard to people’s ability to access welfare, we are confronting massive problems; our burden is great and the road ahead leads far into the distance. And I make this point without even mentioning the crisis in aged care, or issues related to employment opportunities and education.JFb免费翻墙网
Rural destitution is a widespread and crushing reality; greater support through public policy initiatives is essential. Without major changes, half of China will remain in what is basically a pre-modern economic state. That will mean that the hope to create a modern China will remain unfulfilled, if not half-hearted. If this situation continues what good is it to talk about the Great Revival of Chinese Civilisation?JFb免费翻墙网
At the recent China-Arab States Cooperation Forum [on 10 July 2018] the Chinese Leadership [that is, Xi Jinping] announced that twenty billion US dollars would be made available for ‘Dedicated Reconstruction Projects’ in the Arab world. On top of that, [Xi Jinping declared that] ‘a further one billion yuan will be offered to support social stability efforts in the region’. Everyone knows full well that the Gulf States are literally oozing with wealth. Why is China, a country with over one hundred million people who are still living below the poverty line, playing at being the flashy big-spender? How can the Chinese not comment in astonishment: just what is the Supreme Bureaucratic Authority thinking? Don’t They care about our own people? Furthermore, the people who indulge in such grand and expensive gestures evince no respect for existing budgetary procedures or institutional formalities; in the process They shunt aside a National People’s Congress that is constitutionally empowered to maintain budgetary oversight. In the process, existing institutionalised bureaucratic mechanisms are for all intents and purposes paralysed. It is akin to a declaration of war on the authority of the Constitution and the Rule of Law.JFb免费翻墙网
